Between the destruction in New Orleans, Texas and Florida, the U.S. death toll in Iraq rising above 2,000, terrifyingly low presidential approval ratings, and cover-ups surrounding the White House, it’s no surprise that people in the United States aren’t hearing much about the avian flu, a disease being spread among birds in Asia and parts of Europe.

However, experts on the subject of microbiology and disease are deeply concerned about what this influenza strain could mean for humans.

“The question is will this become a virus that’s transmissible from human to human and no one knows the answer to that,” said Ron Froehlich, MHCC microbiology / anatomy and physiology instructor. “But, with the history of the flu, and how often it mutates, we’re sitting on a potential powder keg.”

Avian flu is transmitted between birds like the flu is transmitted between humans.

Currently, humans are not very susceptible to it, but a number of people who have come in direct contact with infected birds have contracted the bird influenza.

As of early November, 122 cases of avian flu had been reported in humans, 62 of which resulted in death.

“The people contracting it at this point in time have been involved in the poultry industry, handling chickens or ducks or in some cases in Vietnam, drank duck blood,” Froehlich said. “I don’t think we should be worried to the point that we don’t go out in public or not eat chicken. But, when the virus mutates, then I think we’ll need to take some very serious precautions. You would need to understand it could be spread by coughing or sneezing or touching something a sick person touched, even something as simple as touching a shopping cart in a grocery store.”

Froehlich, who held a presentation on avian flu Nov. 4, said it would be very easy for the influenza to mutate into a human strain. “Maybe not this week, and maybe not this year,” he continued, “But it will mutate. The avian flu must be in a person that has the human flu, which would create an ultimate flu strain.”

President Bush has been putting together a plan to combat the possible threat. On Nov. 2 Bush announced he would be allocating $7.1 billion to research the virus and for the stockpiling of antiviral drugs.

“A pandemic is a lot like a forest fire,” Bush said during a television appearance. “If caught early, it might be extinguished with limited damage. If allowed to smolder undetected, it can grow to an inferno that spreads quickly beyond our ability to control it.”
Froehlich pointed out that humans are dead end hosts for the virus at this point. “They get it and they get better or they die, they don’t transmit it to other people. But, there is in the back of all of our minds in virology, that this virus is going to mutate and become transmissible.”

Froehlich took a heavier tone. “That would be catastrophic to put it mildly. We wouldn’t have a vaccine against it. It’s a new virus that virtually no one has immunity to, and we don’t even know if the anti-viral drugs would work.”

Froehlich compared the possible pandemic to the flu outbreak in 1918. The strain in 1918 was an avian flu that mutated and killed between 25 million and 50 million people worldwide.

“It killed young children, it killed the elderly, but it even killed perfectly healthy people.” Froehlich is worried that this “ultimate flu” would be even more destructive than the 1918 pandemic. “With jet airliners and the way people travel, this could spread to the rest of the globe in a matter of days.”

Another fear shared by many is the effect on the economy if such an outbreak occurred.

“All sectors of the economy would be affected,” said Froehlich. “Sick people wouldn’t be at work all across the globe. Food services, police, every corner of our system would be affected.”

“People think we have a vaccine when in fact we don’t,” Froehlich said. “A vaccine to avian flu is being made, but a human strain would require different treatment.”

If there were a flu outbreak, Froehlich questions how prepared hospitals are. “Ventilators would be needed everywhere, but three-fourths of ventilators in the U.S. are already in use,” he said. Hospital workers would also risk infection.

On Oct. 6, during a press conference, Bush called for Congress to give him authority to place military in law enforcement roles in the event of a flu pandemic. “I’m concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world,” he told reporters. “One option is the use of a military that’s able to plan and move, so that’s why I put it on the table. I think it’s an important debate for Congress to have.”

Froehlich suggested a few simple things everyone can do to minimize the occurrences of flu in humans. Eating a balanced diet, getting plenty of sleep, reducing stress, washing your hands frequently, and getting a flu shot are a few options to help delay a human strain of the avian flu.

There is some hope, however. “It’s not 100 percent certain that a human strain will retain the lethality of the avian strain,” said Froehlich, “but mutation is almost inevitable, and we should prepare for the worst.”