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Wild Card Weekend features three rematches
The Advocate
The NFL’s Wild Card Weekend is right on the horizon, featuring three rematches from last weekend’s games. Two of those games featured teams sitting most of their players and protecting their playbooks for the following weekend, while the third match, Philadelphia and Dallas, appeared as though one of the teams wasn’t trying; all rematches will most assuredly be more competitive. The following is analysis of this weekend’s NFL Wild Card playoff games, ranked in the order of how confident I am in my predictions, with #1 being most confident, and #4 being least.
Green Bay Packers over Arizona Cardinals:
Considering Arizona’s season – their second consecutive year in which they won a division title while flying completely under the radar – I should be more inclined to pick the defending NFC champs. Their defense has improved, cutting a touchdown per game off the scoreboard. They have a power running back in Beanie Wells, and they still have receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin (questionable) with quarterback Kurt Warner throwing the ball to them. So what gives? I’m a big believer that momentum plays a huge role in the playoffs. For instance, in last season’s finale against Seattle, Cards Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt made his starters play the game as if they hadn’t wrapped up the division weeks earlier. This helped propel Arizona into the Super Bowl by lighting a fire under them, getting them rolling prior to the postseason. Did Whisenhunt not learn from his own coaching? In last week’s game against Green Bay, the Cardinals sleepwalked through the game. They sat all their starters, and watched the Packers decimate Arizona’s second-team.
Green Bay has a fast, efficient offense that runs power ground plays very well. Their average per carry is only 4.1 yards, but their offensive line hardly ever allows their running backs to lose yardage, meaning they’ll consistently pick up at least some yardage, putting the offense in manageable second and third down positions. Defensively, they pressure the quarterback and create turnovers as well or better than anyone in the playoffs. Arizona will come to play, thanks to their experience, but it will be tough to flip the switch back on after allowing Green Bay to get a lot of confidence last weekend. 34 – 17, Green Bay.
Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles:
Another of three rematch games from last weekend, this was possibly the most astounding one to watch. The Eagles came out completely flat, appearing totally disinterested in a division title, even though they had a first-round bye at stake. While watching the game, I felt the Eagles were “hiding” their blitz packages, not wanting to show them off, just in case they lost the game and had to play Dallas again the following week. If this were the case, they were playing like cowards and didn’t deserve a division title. Watching press conferences later in the week, it appears this was not the case. Philadelphia got completely manhandled and was entirely outmatched through the game.
The Eagles have no semblance of a running game, seemingly relying on the big play every drive. They came into last weekend hot, but this is not the Dallas team of yesteryear; they no longer get burned on every deep throw teams fire at them. Having said that, I know how capable and dangerous QB Donovan McNabb can be. The Eagles will be more focused this weekend, but whether they decide to blitz on 60 percent of plays or not, the Cowboys offense will be ready. They run halfback draws from the I-formation and shotgun better than any team in the league, and their quick-passing attack – which is vital against blitz-happy teams – will be too much for the Eagles to handle. Dallas has won three “big” games this season (at Philly, at then-undefeated New Orleans, and last weekend’s NFC East title game), while the Eagles are 0-4 against playoff teams. The result of the game could be entirely flipped, and while I think Philly will hit on some big plays, Dallas will keep its streak as the hottest team in the NFC alive for a couple more weeks.
27-13, Dallas.
Cincinnati Bengals over New York Jets:
Normally, a very strong defense against a rookie quarterback would be my lock of the week. This game is far different. As I mentioned before, I believe momentum is huge heading into the playoffs. The Bengals have lost three of their last four games, while the Jets have won two in a row, including last weekend’s 37-0 blasting of the Bengals in New York. The game this weekend will be in Cincinnati, which will help. Rookie quarterbacks become helpless when their running game is taken away, but the Bengals offense isn’t nearly as explosive as it was in years past, preferring to play a power running game (top ranked by footballoutsiders.com). They make efficient throws on offense, and let their defense do the rest. Barring an implosion by Jets QB Mark Sanchez, I don’t see this game getting so out of hand that Sanchez can’t still hand it off.
In terms of defense, the Jets can stop the run. The Bengals struggle at times, especially against power rushing teams like the Jets. These two teams mirror each other in terms of offense, but defensively the Jets have the advantage in scheme. The Bengals have been able to create a pass rush with their front four or via the blitz and have been successful because their two former first-round picks at cornerback have been outstanding in man and zone coverage. Prior to getting shut out last weekend, I would have felt the Bengals hold the clear advantage, but I only feel they do now because their quarterback is a veteran who has made clutch plays all season. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Jets upset the Bengals, but I don’t think they will. 16-10, Cincinnati.
New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens:
Losing WR Wes Welker for the entire postseason is a huge hit for the Patriots. They barely beat Baltimore early in the season, but that was before Pats QB Tom Brady got his mojo back. Late in the year, the Patriots defense looked awful, giving up huge games to opposing quarterbacks. They ended up winning three straight before going through the motions in their season-ending loss. In that game, their postseason hopes might have fallen away with Welker’s knee. Now, the Ravens have the option of double-teaming WR Randy Moss and leaving Welker-clone Julian Edelman to attempt to beat them. Edelman will play Welker’s role, and I think he’ll do well, at least in this game.
Baltimore got back to their roots in the final game of the season, calling hand-off after hand-off to RBs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. QB Joe Flacco had a Trent Dilfer-like game, going 11 of 19 passing. This is crucial to the Ravens’ postseason success, as all year Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has been calling plays as if Flacco was Dan Marino. The Ravens have the manpower to pull an “upset” in this game, especially along the offensive line, but they don’t have Tom Brady. I like the Patriots in this game for that reason, although it won’t be easy. Pats coach Bill Belichick will have his players ready, and he’ll have to coach his best game of the season. 20-17, New England.
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