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Sanchez has no chance while Dallas stalls Favre
Last week was rough.
For anyone who was counting, I was 1-3 on my predictions, with the only correct call being the Dallas Cowboys over the Philadelphia Eagles. However, before everyone rushes to find the ax and execute my predictions, there were at least three prediction sets – yes, 0-4! – that were worse than mine.
Bill Simmons, long time ESPN columnist, was not only 0-4, but his analysis was blatantly wrong on every account. I like reading Bill’s work, but so far he’s on pace to enjoy a second rough postseason in a row. And he gets paid to go 0-4. The Advocate’s esteemed sports editor, Jake Fray, also pitched a bagel last weekend. Finally, according to ESPN’s SportsNation predictions, the majority of the United States went “swing and a miss” four times, selecting every game wrong. At least Accuscore, a prediction machine, made the same selections I did. Here are this weekend’s NFL Divisional Playoff game predictions, with #1 being my most confident selection, and #4 being my least confident.
San Diego Chargers over New York Jets: All the keys to a selection of the Jets to beat Cincinnati were there last weekend in the analysis given. In the end, I just couldn’t pull the trigger on a rookie quarterback, no matter how good his defense and running game were. So why won’t New York beat San Diego, even though the Jets have a lot of momentum? Because San Diego finished the year with 10-straight victories. Technically, they are the hottest team in the league.
When it comes down to it, there was one sentence I wrote in last week’s Jets analysis that should have triggered a likely win for them: “Rookie quarterbacks become helpless when their running game is taken away, but the Bengals offense isn’t nearly as explosive as it was in years past.” The Chargers’ offense is highly explosive. The Bolts don’t run the ball well at all, and some of their passing game will be nullified by the Jets’ amazing cornerback Darrelle Revis. While WR Vincent Jackson might get stuck on “Revis Island,” QB Philip Rivers is in a groove, and I literally think all he has to do to win is throw to TE Antonio Gates and chuck screen passes to RB Darren Sproles. If the Chargers can consistently score and hold the ball for at least 28 minutes, Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez might indeed become helpless. 28-17, Chargers.
Dallas Cowboys over Minnesota Vikings: Suddenly, after one playoff victory, the Cowboys are everyone’s pick to make it to the Super Bowl. Considering the way they destroyed the Eagles the last two weeks, this may be the case. They certainly look like the most dangerous team in the NFC right now, thanks to their defense and extremely consistent offense. Quite frankly, the winner of this game will come down to who protects their QB better. Both Dallas’ defense and Minnesota’s defense have a pair of defenders who’ve put hits on quarterbacks a combined 30 times and 28 times, respectively.
Offensively, the Vikings are one of two teams in NFL history to have six players with at least 40 receptions each. That kind of spreading the ball around – especially on quick routes – plays to Minnesota’s advantage because they’ve got one of the all-time greats in QB Brett Favre flinging the ball. Favre however, is 0-3 in the postseason against Dallas. So the question is, how long can Favre play the “bus driver” game and be patient? Dallas will have to concentrate on RB Adrian Peterson somewhat, but he’s almost been an afterthought, having not rushed for 100 yards in the Vikings’ last seven games. Dallas has not allowed a 100 yard rusher all season. While both teams create offensive match-up problems for the other, I think Dallas forces too much pressure up front for Favre to handle. 31-21, Cowboys.
Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts: This is my upset special. Last weekend, I’ll be honest: I took New England because of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Baltimore, according to FootballOutsiders.com, is the most powerful team on both sides of the ball left in the playoffs. Really, they’re a 13-3 team disguised as a 9-7 team. Two drops and two missed kicks later (including one against Indy), they’re looking at 9-7 and a wild card spot. Do you think this bothers them? Absolutely not. When the Ravens were 3-2 early in the season, I called them crazy for trying to become a passing team. Now, they’re a team that, in their last 5 games, have run it far more times than they’ve passed it, including 52 times last weekend. QB Joe Flacco in his second year already has three times as many playoff wins as Colts QB Peyton Manning had in his first five years.
Despite the fact that the Colts are 1-4 in playoff games when they don’t finish the regular season with their starters in the lineup, they’re still dangerous. They’re at home, they’ve beaten Baltimore already – missed field goal or not – and they’ve been clutch all season, winning seven games in the fourth quarter. Baltimore needs to start fast, run right at the Colts 24th ranked rush defense, get a big lead early, and drain some clock. That’s a lot of “ifs,” but I see it happening, especially with Manning’s shabby postseason record at hand (7-8), and the fact they haven’t played a meaningful game in almost a month. Will Colts coach Jim Caldwell change the Colts playoff fortunes? Or will it still be same old one-and-done for Manning? I’ll go with the latter. 34-28, Ravens.
New Orleans Saints over Arizona Cardinals: After an incredibly entertaining and explosive game last week against Green Bay, Arizona seems to have captured the attention of the nation for the second consecutive postseason. QB Kurt Warner played like a man possessed; this will likely be his last season before retirement. The Cards also will probably have WR Anquan Boldin, who missed last week’s game with injuries. New Orleans appears to be on a giant slide downward, having lost three consecutive games to end the season.
Having said this, the Saints are still a dangerous team. I have no doubt they spent much of the bye week fixing the offensive issues that ailed the team late in the season, and Saints coach Sean Payton is one of the best game planners in the league. The first-round bye used to be the surest bet in football; home teams in the divisional round yielded about a 75 percent win percentage up through 2002. Since then, it’s a coin flip; home teams are 11-11. Momentum has become a huge factor. I believe however, the Saints can get their offensive troubles in order, and I know the Cardinals’ offense will come to play. So whose defense do I trust more, the defense that let up 45 points last weekend, or the defense that has consistent playmakers at every level? Put it this way: If both have the capability of scoring 45, which defense do you trust to stop the other once more? I’ll take the Saints. 38-34, Saints.
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